It is two weeks into the general election campaign, and constituency seat projection polls suggest northern Lincolnshire could have a new political landscape.
New constituency boundaries are in place this time in northern Lincolnshire. The complete blue colour Conservative sea to the political map of northern Lincolnshire’s constituencies is predicted to change, according to the latest polls.
Only the Conservative’s candidate for Brigg and Immingham, Martin Vickers, is currently expected by all polls to win. But all of northern Lincolnshire’s four seats have predicted close margins by at least one pollster, meaning every vote will matter.
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Below is a breakdown of the latest projections for each of the constituencies by three different pollsters, according to MRP (multi-level regression and poststratification) polls. MRPs are where pollsters combine a big sample size of voting intentions with other sources of information that may indicate how people in a local area will vote, such as census data.
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes
All of Electoral Calculus, YouGov and More in Common project this as likely Labour, but the margins differ significantly. Electoral Calculus predicts Labour’s Melanie Onn will win 52 per cent of the vote, and have a 22 per cent margin of win.
More in Common, which forecasts overall still a Labour General Election win, thinks it will be close, Labour on 42 per cent, with the Conservatives on 34. YouGov comes in the middle, currently predicting Labour on 43 per cent, and the Conservatives on 26.
All predict Reform will get more than 11 per cent in Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes – these polls were before Nigel Farage took over the party’s leadership. Two of the three polls suggest the Liberal Democrats will keep their £500 deposit, lost by any candidate who does not win five per cent of the vote.
Scunthorpe County
Labour’s Sir Nic Dakin is currently projected to win Scunthorpe County by all three pollsters. More in Common again suggests it will be close, with a 45-37 per cent split between Labour and the Conservatives.
YouGov has an eighteen per cent margin of difference, and Electoral Calculus is larger, with Labour predicted to get just over half of the vote. Reform is the only other party predicted to keep its deposit, and is again expected to get more than one in ten votes.
More in Common MRP poll, June 3 – Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes constituency
More in Common / The News Agents – based on 15,000+ sample from April 9 to May 29
Brigg and Immingham
As mentioned, the Conservatives’ Martin Vickers is slated to win Brigg and Immingham. Almost all council wards in the constituency are Conservative only, so this is not surprising. All three pollsters, however, predict a close margin between the Conservatives and Labour.
More in Common gives the Conservatives a 12 per cent lead, and 46 per cent of all votes. YouGov and Electoral Calculus differ on the precise figures for the two main parties, but both say a six point margin between first and second place.
Reform are predicted to poll between nine and 16 per cent, and More in Common suggests the Lib Dems will keep their deposit.
Doncaster East and Isle of Axholme
This new constituency melds together traditionally strongly Conservative Isle of Axholme and Labour-leaning Doncaster East. It being a potential marginal is possible.
More in Common has Labour’s Lee Pitcher on 41 per cent and the Conservatives on 35. Wider margins of victory for Labour are predicted by YouGov and Electoral Calculus, 13 and 14 per cent respectively.
As in all the other northern Lincolnshire constituencies, Reform could play its part too, with a projected vote share of between 13 and 17 per cent. More in Common and YouGov predict the Lib Dems to also get above five per cent, with YouGov also suggesting the Greens would not lose their deposit, were they to stand. Full candidate lists for constituencies will be published later this week.
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So, three pollsters suggest Labour could win three of northern Lincolnshire four MPs. Boundary changes do, however, make the contests more intriguing. Historically more Conservative-leaning areas of rural North Lincolnshire are within Scunthorpe County, and Cleethorpes is now with Greater Grimsby.
Ultimately, polling can only be an indicator, and of how voters would vote now, not in a month’s time. MRP projections also can underplay local factors, such as candidates commanding strong personal support.
“A week is a long time in politics,” one 20th century Labour prime minister once said. With four weeks to go before polling day, and manifestos to be launched in full, things could be rather different on election night.
Original artice: https://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/all-about/scunthorpe
